Thoughts

Role Model:

Is there a perfect role model?
Tiger Woods: marriage crisis
Adrian Peterson: 109mph speeding in 55mph zone

Technology:

What should we do in this never-ending/fast_paced evolution?

Chinese American

美国南湾坎贝尔市(Campbell，又译金宝市)议会于1日晚，全票顺利地通过了任命现任华裔副市长罗达伦(EvanLow)为新任市长。为此，现年26岁的罗达伦成为全美最年轻的华裔市长，为在美华裔参政史谱写了新篇章。

在同一晚上，坎贝尔市附近的库柏蒂诺市议会上，也举行了市长宣誓就职仪式。前华裔市长胡宜兰再度宣誓成为该市市长，今年起是她第二个市长任期。另一位华裔市议员黄少雄当选为副市长。上个月初以第二高票当选的华裔候选人张昭富，当晚也正式宣誓成为市议员。

Life

to live , to learn, to love , to leave a legacy



Habit 1: Be Proactive: Principles of Personal Choice
You can either be proactive or reactive when it comes to how you respond to certain things

Habit 2: Begin with the End in Mind: Principles of Personal Vision
Your career, life goals.

Habit 3: Put First Things First: Principles of Integrity & Execution
Independence to Interdependence

Habit 4: Think Win/Win: Principles of Mutual Benefit

Habit 5: Seek First to Understand, Then to be Understood: Principles of Mutual Understanding

Habit 6: Synergize: Principles of Creative Cooperation
Continual Improvement
Apply collaborative decision making. Value differences.

Habit 7: Sharpen the Saw: Principles of Balanced Self-Renewal
Regain what Covey calls "production capability" by engaging in carefully selected recreational activities. Covey also emphasizes the need to sharpen the mind.

Obama

It was a town hall, but this time Barack Obama was not in Iowa or New Hampshire. There were no hay bales, no bunting and no activists with questions about universal health care, clean coal or legalizing marijuana. This forum, after all, was being held in a nation controlled by the Communist Party.

Instead of being greeted by voters mulling their options, Obama on Monday met with several hundred well-dressed, attentive and relentlessly on-message students, handpicked by Chinese authorities for the occasion. They listened attentively, nodding in agreement at some of his answers and laughing at his jokes. Most of their questions were something less than challenging. "What measures will you take to deepen this close relationship between cities of the United States and China?" asked the first questioner, a young woman whom Obama picked randomly from the crowd. "What's the main reason that you were honored with the Nobel Prize for Peace?" asked another. A third followed up on the Nobel Prize line of inquiry. "What's your university/college education that brings you to get such kind of prizes?"
(See pictures of Barack Obama in Asia.)


It was the first time a U.S. President had ever hosted a town hall in the Communist Party–controlled state, and the terms of the event were carefully negotiated between diplomats from both countries. The selection of the audience aside, Chinese authorities also picked three questions that had been submitted over the Internet — including one that was sharply critical of U.S. support for the Taiwanese military. U.S. ambassador Jon Huntsman read an additional question, which the White House said had been randomly selected from a group of online submissions acquired by the U.S. government.

Huntsman's question, the most controversial of the night, asked about the "great firewall" that prevents open access to the Internet in China, where many websites are blocked by government censors. "I'm a big supporter of noncensorship," Obama said in a section of the event that was described on the website of Xinhua, the state-run news agency. "This is part of the tradition of the United States."
(See the 50 best websites of 2009.)

But the Obama Administration's initial hopes for widespread Chinese broadcast of the event were not, in the end, realized. Though the event was covered on Shanghai television, elsewhere in the country the broadcast networks did not carry the feed. The White House website streamed the video, but it was not immediately apparent that any of the major Chinese Web portals had done the same. A TIME reporter tried to find Chinese residents watching the event in Beijing Internet cafés, but a survey of a half-dozen establishments found no one watching. Customers were playing online games instead.

The frustrations over distribution aside, Obama's message of the importance of communication and mutual respect did seem to strike a chord with the audience at the event. Obama received multiple rounds of applause, and when he spoke of the importance of education for women, many of the young ladies in the audience could be seen nodding their heads in approval.
(Read "Five Things the U.S. and China Actually Agree On.")

In an address before taking questions, Obama mentioned the long struggle in the U.S. for equal rights among its citizens, invoking Martin Luther King and Thomas Jefferson to suggest parallels for increased individual rights in China. "We do not seek to impose any system of government on any other nation, but we also don't believe that the principles that we stand for are unique to our nation," Obama said. "These freedoms of expression and worship — of access to information and political participation — we believe are universal rights."
(Read "Obama in Southeast Asia: Mending Fences in a Key Region.")

At the end of the event, Obama invited the audience to travel to the U.S. "I think you will find that the American people feel very warmly toward the people of China," Obama said. And then he stepped off the stage, just like in Iowa and New Hampshire, and began shaking hands with the starstruck crowd.

— With reporting by Austin Ramzy and Chengcheng Jiang / Beijing



************************************************************************************
Beijing - In the end, it was a display of diplomatic guile by the US Ambassador to China that rescued President Obama's "town hall meeting" with Chinese students on Monday.

After a string of softball questions from officially selected students, Ambassador Jon Huntsman read out a question that someone had sent in to the US Embassy website, asking bluntly what the president thought of Internet censorship in China.

Taking advantage of this end-run around Chinese government efforts to control all aspects of the supposedly unscripted event, Mr. Obama stressed that he had "always been a strong supporter of open Internet use" and "a big supporter of non-censorship."

His response – faithfully transcribed onto the website of the official state news agency, Xinhua – was immediately posted prominently on all four major Chinese web portals, drawing delighted reactions from some readers.

"An open country, a great president and an immortal assertion; we still have a long way to go" wrote one netizen signing himself Jiangzhongshan on Sohu.com.

It was never going to be easy in China, where officials prize predictability, to organize the sort of spontaneous discussion on live TV that Obama has made part of his political repertoire.

The White House had envisioned an unmoderated dialogue between the president and some 1,500 students asking whatever they wanted, broadcast on national television here. After a fortnight of tortured negotiations with Beijing, the US settled for a scaled-down version involving about 400 Chinese students and questions from the Internet, broadcast only on local Shanghai TV, a Hong Kong station, and on the Web.

But only determined viewers would have succeeded in following the event. Whitehouse.gov, which live streamed the meeting, was unreliable in Beijing, and though the White House Facebook page also carried it, Facebook is blocked in China, along with other social networking sites such as Twitter and YouTube.

It did not exactly allow the US president to reach out directly and touch the Chinese people's hearts, but the official Xinhua news agency carried a real-time transcript of the proceedings on its website.

Xinhua also did not flinch from the pointed references to freedom that Obama made in his introductory remarks. "These freedoms of expression and worship, of access to information and political participation, we believe are universal rights," the president said, referring to four rights curtailed in China.

The questions, though, asked by members of the audience or sent in to a government website, did not pose much of a challenge to Obama – or to Chinese censors. Topics included Obama's hometown, Chicago, his Nobel Prize, US policy in Afghanistan, and what he hopes to achieve on his current visit to China.

The students attending had clearly been vetted and their questions approved by the Chinese authorities. Two of the four questions from the audience came from student officers of the Communist Youth League, it transpired later.

Still, Obama's support for freedom of expression – even if it came in response to a planted question – inspired one viewer.

"I shall not forget this morning" Twittered @philfenghan. "I heard, on my shaky internet connection, a question about our own freedom which only a foreign leader can discuss."

Obama Speech

Thank you. Good morning. It is a great honor to welcome you to the first meeting of the Strategic Economic Dialogue between the United States and China. This is an essential step in advancing a positive, constructive, and comprehensive relationship between our countries. I’m pleased that President Hu shares my commitment to a sustained dialogue to enhance our shared interests.

President Hu and I both felt that it was important to get our relationship off to a good start. Of course, as a new President and also as a basketball fan, I have learned from the words of Yao Ming, who said, "No matter whether you are new or an old team member, you need time to adjust to one another." Well, through the constructive meetings that we’ve already had, and through this dialogue, I’m confident that we will meet Yao’s standard.

I want to acknowledge the remarkable American and Chinese leaders who will co-chair this effort. Hillary Clinton and Tim Geithner are two of my closest advisors, and they have both obtained extraordinary experience working with China. And I know that they will have extremely capable and committed Chinese counterparts in State Councilor Dai and Vice Premier Wang. Thank you very much for being here.

I’m also looking forward to the confirmation of an outstanding U.S. Ambassador to China, Governor Jon Huntsman, who is here today. (Applause.) Jon has deep experience living and working in Asia, and — unlike me — he speaks fluent Mandarin Chinese. He also happens to be a Republican who co-chaired Senator McCain’s campaign. And I think that demonstrates Jon’s commitment to serving his country, and the broad, bipartisan support for positive and productive relations between the United States and China. So thank you, Jon, for your willingness to serve.

Today, we meet in a building that speaks to the history of the last century. It houses a national memorial to President Woodrow Wilson, a man who held office when the 20th century was still young, and America’s leadership in the world was emerging. It is named for Ronald Reagan, a man who came of age during two World Wars, and whose presidency helped usher in a new era of history. And it holds a piece of the Berlin Wall, a decades-long symbol of division that was finally torn down, unleashing a rising tide of globalization that continues to shape our world.

One hundred years ago — in the early days of the 20th century — it was clear that there were momentous choices to be made — choices about the borders of nations and the rights of human beings. But in Woodrow Wilson’s day, no one could have foreseen the arc of history that led to a wall coming down in Berlin, nor could they have imagined the conflict and upheaval that characterized the years in between. For people everywhere — from Boston to Beijing — the 20th century was a time of great progress, but that progress also came with a great price.

Today, we look out on the horizon of a new century. And as we launch this dialogue, it’s important for us to reflect upon the questions that will shape the 21st century. Will growth be stalled by events like our current financial crisis, or will we cooperate to create balanced and sustainable growth, lifting more people out of poverty and creating a broader prosperity around the world? Will the need for energy breed competition and climate change, or will we build partnerships to produce clean power and to protect our planet? Will nuclear weapons spread unchecked, or will we forge a new consensus to use this power for only peaceful purposes? Will extremists be able to stir conflict and division, or will we unite on behalf of our shared security? Will nations and peoples define themselves solely by their differences, or can we find common ground necessary to meet our common challenges, and to respect the dignity of every human being?

We can’t predict with certainty what the future will bring, but we can be certain about the issues that will define our times. And we also know this: The relationship between the United States and China will shape the 21st century, which makes it as important as any bilateral relationship in the world. That really must underpin our partnership. That is the responsibility that together we bear.

As we look to the future, we can learn from our past — for history shows us that both our nations benefit from engagement that is grounded in mutual interest and mutual respect. During my time in office, we will mark the 40th anniversary of President Nixon’s trip to China. At that time, the world was much different than it is today. America had fought three wars in East Asia in just 30 years, and the Cold War was in a stalemate. China’s economy was cut off from the world, and a huge percentage of the Chinese people lived in extreme poverty.

Back then, our dialogue was guided by a narrow focus on our shared rivalry with the Soviet Union. Today, we have a comprehensive relationship that reflects the deepening ties among our people. Our countries have now shared relations for longer than we were estranged. Our people interact in so many ways. And I believe that we are poised to make steady progress on some of the most important issues of our times.

My confidence is rooted in the fact that the United States and China share mutual interests. If we advance those interests through cooperation, our people will benefit and the world will be better off — because our ability to partner with each other is a prerequisite for progress on many of the most pressing global challenges.

Let me name some of those challenges. First, we can cooperate to advance our mutual interests in a lasting economic recovery. The current crisis has made it clear that the choices made within our borders reverberate across the global economy — and this is true not just in New York and Seattle, but in Shanghai and Shenzhen, as well. That is why we must remain committed to strong bilateral and multilateral coordination. And that is the example we have set by acting aggressively to restore growth, to prevent a deeper recession and to save jobs for our people.

Going forward, we can deepen this cooperation. We can promote financial stability through greater transparency and regulatory reform. We can pursue trade that is free and fair, and seek to conclude an ambitious and balanced Doha Round agreement. We can update international institutions so that growing economies like China play a greater role that matches their greater responsibility. And as Americans save more and Chinese are able to spend more, we can put growth on a more sustainable foundation — because just as China has benefited from substantial investment and profitable exports, China can also be an enormous market for American goods.

Second, we can cooperate to advance our mutual interest in a clean, secure, and prosperous energy future. The United States and China are the two largest consumers of energy in the world. We are also the two largest emitters of greenhouse gases in the world. Let’s be frank: Neither of us profits from a growing dependence on foreign oil, nor can we spare our people from the ravages of climate change unless we cooperate. Common sense calls upon us to act in concert.

Both of our countries are taking steps to transform our energy economies. Together we can chart a low carbon recovery; we can expand joint efforts at research and development to promote the clean and efficient use of energy; and we can work together to forge a global response at the Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen and beyond. And the best way to foster the innovation that can increase our security and prosperity is to keep our markets open to new ideas, new exchanges, and new sources of energy.

Third, we can cooperate to advance our mutual interests in stopping the spread of nuclear weapons. Make no mistake: The more nations acquire these weapons, the more likely it is that they will be used. Neither America nor China has an interest in a terrorist acquiring a bomb, or a nuclear arms race breaking out in East Asia. That is why we must continue our collaboration to achieve the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, and make it clear to North Korea that the path to security and respect can be traveled if they meet their obligations. And that is why we must also be united in preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, and urging the Islamic Republic to live up to its international obligations.

This is not about singling out any one nation — it is about the responsibility of all nations. Together, we must cooperate to secure all vulnerable nuclear materials around the world, which will be a focus of our Global Nuclear Summit next year. And together, we must strengthen the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty by renewing its basic bargain: countries with nuclear weapons will move towards disarmament; countries without nuclear weapons will not acquire them; and all countries can access peaceful nuclear energy. A balance of terror cannot hold. In the 21st century, a strong and global regime is the only basis for security from the world’s deadliest weapons.

And fourth, we can cooperate to advance our mutual interests in confronting transnational threats. The most pressing dangers we face no longer come from competition among great powers — they come from extremists who would murder innocents; from traffickers and pirates who pursue their own profits at the expense of others; from diseases that know no borders; and from suffering and civil wars that breed instability and terror. These are the threats of the 21st century. And that is why the pursuit of power among nations must no longer be seen as a zero-sum game. Progress — including security — must be shared.

Through increased ties between our militaries, we can diminish causes for dispute while providing a framework for cooperation. Through continued intelligence-sharing, we can disrupt terrorist plots and dismantle terrorist networks. Through early warning and coordination, we can check the spread of disease. And through determined diplomacy, we must meet our responsibility to seek the peaceful resolution of conflict — and that can begin with a renewed push to end the suffering in Darfur, and to promote a comprehensive peace in Sudan.

All of these issues are rooted in the fact that no one nation can meet the challenges of the 21st century on its own, nor effectively advance its interests in isolation. It is this fundamental truth that compels us to cooperate. I have no illusion that the United States and China will agree on every issue, nor choose to see the world in the same way. This was already noted by our previous speaker. But that only makes dialogue more important — so that we can know each other better, and communicate our concerns with candor.

For instance, the United States respects the progress that China has made by lifting hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. Just as we respect China’s ancient and remarkable culture, its remarkable achievements, we also strongly believe that the religion and culture of all peoples must be respected and protected, and that all people should be free to speak their minds. And that includes ethnic and religious minorities in China, as surely as it includes minorities within the United States.

Support for human rights and human dignity is ingrained in America. Our nation is made up of immigrants from every part of the world. We have protected our unity and struggled to perfect our union by extending basic rights to all our people. And those rights include the freedom to speak your mind, to worship your God, and to choose your leaders. These are not things that we seek to impose — this is who we are. It guides our openness to one another and to the world.

China has its own distinct story that shapes its own worldview. And Americans know the richness of China’s history because it helped to shape the world and it helped to shape America. We know the talent of the Chinese people because they have helped to create this great country. My own Cabinet contains two Chinese Americans. And we know that despite our differences, America is enriched through deeper ties with a country of 1.3 billion people that is at once ancient and dynamic — ties that can be forged through increased exchanges among our people, and constructive bilateral relations between our governments. That is how we will narrow our divisions.

Let us be honest: We know that some are wary of the future. Some in China think that America will try to contain China’s ambitions; some in America think that there is something to fear in a rising China. I take a different view. And I believe President Hu takes a different view, as well. I believe in a future where China is a strong, prosperous and successful member of the community of nations; a future when our nations are partners out of necessity, but also out of opportunity. This future is not fixed, but it is a destination that can be reached if we pursue a sustained dialogue like the one that you will commence today, and act on what we hear and what we learn.

Thousands of years ago, the great philosopher Mencius said: "A trail through the mountains, if used, becomes a path in a short time, but, if unused, becomes blocked by grass in an equally short time." Our task is to forge a path to the future that we seek for our children — to prevent mistrust or the inevitable differences of the moment from allowing that trail to be blocked by grass; to always be mindful of the journey that we are undertaking together.

This dialogue will help determine the ultimate destination of that journey. It represents a commitment to shape our young century through sustained cooperation, and not confrontation. I look forward to carrying this effort forward through my first visit to China, where I hope to come to know better your leaders, your people, and your majestic country. Together, I’m confident that we can move steadily in the direction of progress, and meet our responsibility to our people and to the future that we will all share.

Thank you very much. (Applause.)

Barack Obama

President of the United States.

Land Use Model

I think the UT team makes the best point at the end of their 1st deliverable document, “While more complex models tend to track more behaviors of interest, and thereby offer more outputs of interest, their added complexity is not a guarantee of added accuracy.”
I would be glad to make a suggestion on an analysis area in North Central Texas and provide the associated data. I would also like to see more details of what they plan on doing as part of deliverable two once they figure it out.


URBANSIM and PECAS are the two most advanced models out there and several MPO’s are using or investigating them.

Basics

Monte Carlo simulation:


Logit Model Estimation:

Maximum likelihood estimation

the likelihood function: the joint probability that we draw a particular sample
The idea of maximum likelihood method is now to choose p such that the probability of drawing this particular sample is maximal